Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• The latest data on unemployment suggests the U.S. economy might still be at risk of entering a recession. Newsweek
• In other economic news, with high interest rates Australians should brace for a slightly weaker economy in 2024, but it is now clear that it's strong migration that will save Australia from falling into a recession in 2024! Office of Immigration Australia
• Hobbled by high interest rates, persistent inflation, slumping trade and a diminished China, the global economy will slow for a third consecutive year in 2024. The Washington Post
• Whether or not the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2024 is still up for debate, but should we be so fortunate, the increasing number of rising stocks should prevent a meltdown in 2024. The Berkshire Edge
• Shares on Wall Street reached a new all-time high last week, as the enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence went into overdrive and another round of solid economic data reinforced hopes that the US economy can avoid a recession. The Guardian
• The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the threat of climate disruption, and the possibility of a global recession are fueling anxiety across the capitals of Asia and the Pacific. The Asia Foundation
• Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect Brent to range between $70 and $90 a barrel in 2024 based on flexible OPEC + supply, a low risk of recession and opportunistic strategic petroleum reserve purchases by China and the U.S. FinancialExpress
• With a slowdown under way in the US and recession a looming threat in the UK and the eurozone, attention is now focused on when borrowing costs will be cut and which central bank will be the first to move. The Guardian
• Despite fears of a recession last year and weak Christmas shopping figures, the UK's economic outlook had improved markedly over the last 12 months. The Guardian
• For the European economy, already skirting a mild recession as it tries to shake off high inflation, prolonged disruption would be a new risk to its outlook and could derail plans by central banks to start cutting interest rates in 2024. Shore News Network
• The Treasury has modelled scenarios suggesting that disruption in the Red Sea could further shrink the UK economy, risking a recession. BBC News
• The economic resilience of 2023 will give way to stagnation in 2024, and that recession risks are elevated - even though central banks are trying to achieve a soft landing. The Guardian
• Interest rates are projected to rise in the near term as policymakers try to ward off 40-year-high inflation, but they are expected to peak soon thanks to expectations of a recession in the US. Norada Real Estate Investments
• Rising interest rates, the continued war in the Black Sea, and the fear of a global recession are weighing on specific sectors. LA Weekly
• Stronger retail sales helped the UK's economy to rebound in November, but the risk of recession remains. BBC News
• While the global economy is in a better place than it was a year ago - the risk of a global recession has receded, largely because of the strength of the US economy - mounting geopolitical tensions could create fresh near-term hazards for the world economy. Engineering News
• There are concerns that a global recession and continuing armed conflict in Ukraine, the Middle East, and elsewhere will cause significant disruption to the Cambodian economy. The Asia Foundation
• Global economic growth may slow to 2.1% in 2024 from an estimated 2.5% last year, as the US and China could experience shallow recessions in the second half. BusinessWorld
• The key things to watch are: inflation and rates; the risk of recession; China; US politics; and the Australian consumer. ShareCafe
• The world economy will flirt with recession in 2024 and the US will suffer a mild recession in the first six months, with the economy only growing 0.6% over the year, while the eurozone is only seen expanding by 0.2% in its second year of effective stagnation. The Guardian
• As consumers and businesses are apparently less interest-rate sensitive than originally anticipated, the U.S. economy is not currently at risk of falling into recession in early 2024. Cerity Partners

Last updated: 07 February 2024