Global Scans · Coronavirus · Weekly Summary

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Future potential spread of the coronavirus is impacting world trade and threatens a global economic recession and inflection point. For the first time, Illness is now a major driving force. We first reported this virus way back in 2010 and regularly since July 2015 as a predictable surprise: a known unknown to most. It is not a Black Swan; it was foreseen! Forewarned is forearmed and forearmed is protection against unpleasant possibilities and this inflection point will most likely change everyone's future profoundly.

Here are some actions you could take offered by and our friends at WavePoint and BCG and McKinsey.

Companies are asking people to work from home (we have always worked from our homes since 2003). We think the latter will become a long-term and rapidly growing trend as people reduce traveling time, buy more online, and increasingly recognize the benefits to their health of staying home. More emerging, potential behavioral trends here. Begin regularly evaluating predictable surprises, be prepared and act in time, while others lose their shirt through inattention to the future.

• In the two years before the COVID-19 pandemic, Welsh health spending per person overtook Scottish spending for the first time since devolution, and in 2024-25 plans appear to be around 11% higher. Institute for Fiscal Studies
• Disruptions to supply chains related to the COVID-19 pandemic caused American companies to look for supplies closer to the United States. newsdirectory3
• Household consumption in South Africa is expected to pick up slightly in 2024 after likely growing at its weakest pace in three decades last year, outside of the global financial crisis and Covid-19 lockdown. Polity.org.za
• The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the detrimental consequences of poor preparedness for systemic risks, with a shock to the health system spurring an economic downturn, spiralling debt levels and an unravelling of global supply chains 1, 2. Nature
• The COVID-19 pandemic made clear to every government the danger of being dependent on any one country for life-saving medical supplies, just as Russia's war in Ukraine has made clear to Europe the risks of being dependent on one country for energy. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• The World Bank warned of a global crisis in supply chains if attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi militias on vessels in the Red Sea continued for an additional three months, saying it would be a crisis similar to the one the world experienced during the coronavirus pandemic.
• The unprecedented shocks due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the energy price crisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have exacerbated the EU's vulnerability leading to supply disruption, price volatility for energy, commodities, as well as shortage of strategic goods and components. ETUC | European Trade Union Confederation
• Over the past eight years, Nigeria has slumped into two recessions owing largely to the collapse of oil prices and disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Businessday NG
• Consumer prices in the United States have risen sharply over the past three years after generous Covid stimulus spending combined with Covid-related supply chain disruptions and Russia's inflation of Ukraine form a perfect storm of inflationary pressures. Statista Daily Data
• Chinese New Year 2024 is expected to see an uptick in consumption and travel, buoyed by the extra-long holiday and economic recovery experienced after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions. China Briefing News
• A UK biobank study found increased risk of cardiovascular death up to a year-and-a-half after getting COVID in unvaccinated people. Sky News
• More recent disruptions such as the US-China trade war, Covid-19 pandemic, and sanctions on Russia have further prompted businesses to re-evaluate the resilience of their supply chains. Hinrich Foundation
• While current container rates are approximately half of the peak seen during the COVID-19 crisis, it will take time for the higher prices to hit consumers, with the full impact expected within a year. SAFETY4SEA
• Given the unprecedented surge in global temperatures over the past year, combined with ongoing disruptions to the food system from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the odds of a Lloyd's food-shock scenario will be higher than usual in 2024. Yale Climate Connections
• Recent global events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and climate change have highlighted vulnerabilities of the UK's essential supply chains. JD Supra
• Vermont has seen increased hospitalizations for COVID-19 in 2024 and has been suggesting that people wear masks if they think they were exposed or have a high risk of serious illness. Stateline
• Uniquely important in the UK were political risks (a concern for 19% of respondents in the UK as against 14% globally) and the risks posed by new technologies (which were significant for 18% of UK respondents as opposed to just 9% globally). youTalk-insurance.com
• Recent global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have shed light on the vulnerabilities within healthcare supply chains. Benzinga
• In response to increased geopolitical disruption, and the unprecedented challenges of recent years, like the Covid pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and environmental disasters, the UK Government and businesses have boosted their ability to manage supply chain shocks. GOV.UK
• The logistics industry in Asia has experienced notable transformations in the aftermath of the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and escalating geopolitical tensions. Maritime Fairtrade
• Respondents said in 2024 could see the wild economic ups and down experienced since the Covid-19 shock settle down, resulting in macroeconomic developments, at 19% of responses, falling to fifth place globally from third. Engineering News
• Uniquely important in the UK for businesses was political risks, as it was a concern for 19% of respondents compared to 14% globally. CityAM
• Part of the reason for the relatively high initial inflation in EACEE countries is their vulnerability to recent adverse global shocks: disruptions in global supply chains, supply-demand imbalances after the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. European Central Bank

Last updated: 11 February 2024