The World in 2017
What is changing?
Economics
- World oil prices could be $80 per barrel by the end of 2016 and could be at or near $100 per barrel by the end of 2017 or hang around $50.
- Downside risks to oil prices could boost global growth in 2017 and expectations for rising term spreads may signal receding recession risks.
- The International Monetary Fund cut its 2017 growth forecast for the euro area to 1.4 percent from the 1.6 percent it predicted in April.
- One per cent could come off UK economic growth in the year ahead.
- Global growth is projected to increase to 3.2 percent in 2016 and 3.5 percent in 2017 compared with 3.1 percent in 2015 but risks to the outlook are increasingly more pronounced.
- The fragile global economic recovery is expected to keep underlying inflationary pressures contained.
- By 2017, Baby Boomers will control 70 percent of America's disposable income
- The European Commission's Spring 2016 Economic Forecast projects the structural deficit to remain below the medium-term objective from 2015 to 2017.
- In India, growth is projected to increase to 7.5 percent each in 2016 and 2017.
- While unemployment in the OECD will ease to 6.1% by the end of 2017, 39 million people will remain out of work ─ 6.3 million more than before the crisis.
- U.S. real GDP is expected to increase 1.6 percent in 2016 and 1.8 percent in 2017.
- South and Central America as a whole is projected to return to growth in 2017 -18.
- Real GDP growth in Emerging Asia is projected to remain solid at 6.4% in 2016 and 6.3% in 2017.
- With a return to positive growth in Russia and Ukraine, regional growth will accelerate to about 2.6 percent in 2017-18.
- Financial markets are now betting heavily that the Fed will not raise rates again before 2017.
- 2017 is actually the year when Brexit will inflict the most pain on U.S. companies.
- Negative hit to the French economy will be concentrated in 2017.
- In spring 2017, the Netherlands and France will hold national elections.
- By the end of 2017, two-thirds of the CEOs of Global 2000 enterprises will have DX at the center of their corporate strategy.
- A downturn in the UK economy forecast for 2017 will cut both business and leisure travel.
Computing
- More than 70 percent of western European IT organizations will commit to hybrid cloud architectures by 2017.
- Brexit will see the 0.2 percent growth in IT spending in Western Europe forecast for this year turn negative.
- 2/3 of all new cars in 2017 will be Internet-enabled.
- By 2017, 30% of smart wearables will be inconspicuous to the eye.
- By the end of 2017, two-thirds of the CEOs of Global 2000 enterprises will have DX at the center of their corporate strategy.
- More than 70 percent of western European IT organizations will commit to hybrid cloud architectures by 2017.
Consumption
- Global e-commerce sales are expected to increase to $1.88 trillion by the year end and reach $2.1 trillion by 2017.
- Mobile advertising will account for 50% of all digital media ads by 2017.
- India is now the world's third largest market for smartphones and will reach 314 million mobile web users by 2017.
- It's estimated that by 2017, there will be $60 billion in mobile payment sales.
- Millennials will become the largest spenders on hotels as early as 2017.
- The number of regular linear TV viewers will rise 3.1% in 2015 but shrink by 1.9% in 2016 and 0.9% in 2017.
- Sales of wearable devices (smartwatches, sports watches, fitness bands, and other fitness trackers) will jump from 103 million in 2015 to 163 million in 2017.
- The global market for mobile payments will be worth $720 billion in transactions by 2017.
- The number of app users in the world will reach 4.4 billion by 2017.
- CMOs will spend more on IT than CIOs by 2017 with the explosion in marketing technology.
- By 2017, almost 80% of all banks will plan to launch a video banking service in the long term.
Cities
- National smart city policies will be developed by at least 20 of the world's largest countries by 2017.
Farming
- Precision agriculture is currently a $1.5 billion market and expected to grow 148% by 2017.
- Farm income is expected to bounce back in 2017.
Implications
Science
- The UK could lose £1 billion (US$1.4 billion) in science funding each year if the government did not make up the shortfall in EU-linked research funds.
- Without significant new lithium supply coming online, a global shortage of almost 46,000 tons is predicted, equal to 16 percent of total demand, by 2021.
Business
- With the U.K.'s exit, there will likely be an erosion in business confidence and price increases which will impact the U.K., Western Europe and worldwide IT spending.
- 2017 is actually the year when Brexit will inflict the most pain on U.S. companies.
- The vote for British exit could affect automaker earnings by more than 8 billion euros ($8.9 billion) in the next two years.
- Emerging markets will feel the chill of Brexit.
Politics
- Many German commentators fear the AfD and other similar parties across Europe will repeat UKIP's electoral appeal.
- The U.S will have a new President in 2017.
Gold
- The ultimate trajectory of gold will depend on the intensity and duration of the uncertainty shock created by the leave outcome and any potential revisions to the US growth outlook.
Sentiment (How is the world feeling about 2017)