Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• The Biden administration has made it clear that the U.S. does not want war with Iran; any plans to retaliate could further escalate tensions in the Middle East. The Atlantic
• US naval forces operating in the Middle East have been shooting down a deadly threat that China could rely heavily on were a war to break out in the Pacific: anti-ship ballistic missiles. Insider
• In the short term, any direct U.S. retaliation against Iranian interests could heighten regional tensions and exacerbate the cycle of tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iranian-backed forces, increasing the risk of a broader regional conflict. The Conversation
• The United States warned of more retaliatory attacks after it hit Iran-linked targets in Iraq and Syria overnight in response to an attack that killed American soldiers in Jordan amid Israel's war on Gaza. Al Jazeera
• The attacks by the United States inside Iraq and Syria are a strategic error that will only add to tensions and instability in the Middle East heightened by Israel's military campaign in Gaza. Al Jazeera
• Efforts to alleviate tension and enhance manageability in the South China Sea will necessitate strategic adjustments from both China as a coastal state and the United States as a user state. 9DASHLINE
• A s the drumbeat of war continues across the Middle East, with clashes in multiple countries raising fears of a wider conflict, the mercenaries of Russia's Wagner Group are once again getting back to action. The Independent
• 2024's budget includes a fallback clause that allows a potential debt brake suspension for 2024 - should the war in Ukraine escalate or allies like the United States reduce their support for Ukraine, which could prompt Germany to increase its share. Politico
• Regarding the effects of price tensions, increases in transport costs caused by the attacks in the Red Sea could affect consumer prices in Italy by a couple of tenths of a percentage point over a two-year horizon. FIRSTonline
• Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the latest conflict in the Middle East, added to extra wage costs as the scale of pay rises tried to keep up with the pace of inflation. This is Money
• In conflict, the U.S. could target Chinese command and control to ensure its naval and air assets survive, which Chinse military leaders could interpret as the first phase of a counterforce strike on Chinese nuclear capabilities. SpringerLink
• U.S. officials fear that the Russian nuclear posture may rely on threats of limited nuclear first use to terminate conflicts on terms favourable to Russia. SpringerLink
• China, Russia and the United States, possessing both nuclear capabilities and counterspace capabilities, face the risk of being drawn into conflicts through regional tensions and global power competition. Sipri
• The US will send weapons to Greece with the understanding that Greece will send weapons to Ukraine. Armstrong Economics
• The US federal government always finds the funding for foreign wars and will now provide arms to another foreign nation with the promise that they will arm Ukraine. Armstrong Economics
• Concerns remain that any additional American strikes could further inflame a region already roiled by Israel's ongoing war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the ongoing attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on shipping in the Red Sea. India TV News
• The war in Gaza has resulted in an unprecedented level of destruction to its economy which will take tens of billions of dollars and decades to reverse. UN News
• Even with lengthening fundamentals, January saw a significant increase in geopolitical risk, as increasing attacks by Ukraine against Russian infrastructure and tensions in the Red Sea impacted product trade flows.
• A slowing economy will drive growing public discontent: The combination of slowing economic growth and erosion of trust could heighten public discontent and even drive new protests in 2024. Asia Society
• The ongoing war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East have resulted in various risks to both the demand and supply environment. All About Shipping
• China has called for an end to attacks on civilian vessels in the Red Sea, which have widened the Hamas-Israel conflict and placed Beijing's commercial interests along the Suez Canal at risk. The Economic Times
• The global outlook reflected more balanced upside and downside risks, with the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East offset by the prospect that lower fuel prices could help inflation fall faster than expected. Mint

Last updated: 06 February 2024