Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

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WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• Fears of Nato countries being dragged into the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine were highlighted as the Russian missiles appeared to be overflying Ukraine and heading towards Poland. Metro.co.uk
• A group of Syrian mercenaries who received Russian passports are currently in Ulan-Ude and will join the Russian 5th Tank Brigade (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District). Institute for the Study of War
• Drone attacks on refiners in Russia pose a new, less appreciated, but potentially more damaging threat to global oil markets. Middlefield Group
• A second risk of anchoring democracy policy in countering China and Russia is that, as we have argued elsewhere, much of the recent global democratic backsliding has little to do with China and Russia. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• If Russia fails to protect critical oil and gas infrastructure, there is always a danger that the sheer quantity of Ukrainian attacks may cause serious harm to the Russian economy and compromise the Kremlin's ability to wage war. Atlantic Council
• As Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russia's energy sector, Kremlin chiefs will have to choose whether to keep their country's limited air defence systems close to the battlefield in Ukraine or redistribute them to protect oil and gas facilities inside Russia itself. Atlantic Council
• Unnamed US-allied intelligence officials told the NYT that Russia unfroze $9 million of $30 million worth of North Korean assets in an unspecified Russian financial institution, which the intelligence officials assess North Korea will use to buy crude oil. Institute for the Study of War
• On the likely fronts where a Russian force might advance into Europe, Russia would enjoy the advantage of operating on narrow fronts where firepower, electronic warfare assets, and air defence systems can be concentrated to devastating effect. War on the Rocks
• Mashovets observed that it is not surprising that the Dnepr Grouping of Forces - which operates in occupied Kherson Oblast - has the third highest number of reserves given that Russian forces may be concerned over a Ukrainian threat in east bank Kherson Oblast. Institute for the Study of War
• Russia might advance in Ukraine, Israel may succeed in suppressing Hamas, and China could exert more control over Taiwan. Hasht-e Subh
• A new authoritarian axis that includes China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea now threatens the security of the United States and its allies. The Atlantic
• Neither the United States and Russia, nor the United States and China, are likely to engage in bilateral arms control discussions until they believe they can strengthen their security by cooperating to manage nuclear risks. Atlantic Council
• The United States and Russia might find common ground if they seek to establish broad goals for cooperation while identifying specific measures to help manage risks and uncertainties created by their nuclear postures. Atlantic Council
• The United States and Russia are unlikely to reach an agreement on a formal treaty retaining current limits or imposing further reductions on their deployed nuclear forces before the New START agreement expires in 2026. Atlantic Council
• Given current capabilities, the potential increase in threat numbers alone is unlikely to increase the first-strike threat to US nuclear forces significantly, because both Russia and China will independently have sufficient forces to target everything that is currently targetable. Atlantic Council
• Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrates both a propensity to take risk and to miscalculate while doing so, which makes Russian opportunistic or collaborative aggression against NATO states on its periphery a serious threat despite the dismal performance of Russian conventional forces in Ukraine. Atlantic Council
• While North Korea's nuclear forces will continue to grow, they will not expand sufficiently to prevent US strategy from treating North Korea as a lesser included case of the Russia-China nuclear threat. Atlantic Council
• The United States now confronts a security environment featuring two nuclear-armed adversaries-Russia and China-whose forces will potentially pose significant threats to the United States and its allies. Atlantic Council
• Putin stated that Russia plans for occupied areas of Ukraine to be on par with Russia in unspecified key areas by 2030, further indicating that Russia is commencing long-term plans and does not foresee any territorial concessions. Institute for the Study of War
• Turkish banks reportedly have started closing Russian companies' accounts due to the threat of US secondary sanctions. Institute for the Study of War
• A global inflationary surge, fueled by robust macroeconomic stimulus and pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions, was exacerbated by the energy-price shock that followed Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Stabroek News
• U.S. officials fear that the Russian nuclear posture may rely on threats of limited nuclear first use to terminate conflicts on terms favourable to Russia. SpringerLink

Last updated: 10 February 2024