A Future Prognosis

Matt Richardson

19 October 2021
This set of automatically curated slides provides real-time and instant, collective intelligence about possible futures to help inform present day strategy, and for you to act on opportunities and risks and mitigate threats in a timely manner. Learn more

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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Climate change could lop $23 tn off the world's annual economic output by 2050. Raconteur
Planet-heating emissions need to fall by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, and then hit net-zero by mid-century, to have a good chance of keeping warming to 1.5 C. Eco-business
Society has dragged its collective heels on climate action for decades, and it's unclear whether the world will achieve the roughly 50% emission cuts this decade that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change deems essential to avert the worst consequences of a human-warmed planet. Yale Climate Connections
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
An external environmental method of analysis and the company's standing in it
Energy intensive air conditioning, likely to be the world's primary heat reduction strategy, exacerbates global warming and drives further extreme heat events, 5 while remaining unaffordable for the estimated two to five billion people who will be exposed to heat stress by 2050. The BMJ
Climate change could force 216 million people across six world regions to be internally displaced by 2050. Mishcon de Reya LLP
The European Union, the United Kingdom, and Italy have urged Russia to commit to net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 and initiate measures to tackle climate change. Statecraft

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy. Click on any of the bars below:

Completely new. Market dominance yet to be established.
Adopted by the early majority. Rapid growth.
Adoption almost complete. Clearly defined market. Standardization.
End of maturity. Disruption phase.
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Disasters cost cities around the world $314 billion annually, and climate change could put 77 million urban residents into poverty by 2030. World Bank Blogs
The IEA projects CCUS could mitigate up to 15% of global emissions by 2040, and the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates global decarbonization efforts could be twice as costly without wide-scale deployment of CCUS.
A framework of macro-environmental factors used in strategic management
A U.N. analysis of country pledges under the 2015 Paris agreement on climate on Friday showed global emissions would be 16% higher in 2030 than they were in 2010 - far off the 45% reduction by 2030 that scientists say is needed to stave off disastrous climate change. Reuters
The world needs to cut greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030 if it is to align with the Paris climate accord and avoid the most severe consequences of climate change - but almost all countries are off the pace, particularly in Asia Pacific. Eco-business
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires a methane emissions reduction of about 45% by 2030, a recent assessment by UNEP shows. Energy Monitor
Financial Impact
The U.N. called for a 45% reduction in methane emissions below a 2030 business-as-usual baseline, an aggressive cut that would avoid nearly 0.3 degrees Celsius of global warming by the 2040s, while improving human health and agricultural yields through reduced ground level ozone. Inside Climate News
A U.N. analysis of country pledges under the Paris agreement on climate released on Friday showed global emissions would be 16% higher in 2030 than they were in 2010 - far off the 45% reduction by 2030 that scientists say is needed to stave off disastrous climate change. Reuters
A few days after Albanese's dinner picture, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its first major update in eight years, showing that the world will warm 1.5 C by 2040 without the urgent slashing of emissions. The Guardian
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Climate change could directly cost the world economy nearly $8 T by 2050 due to drought, flooding, crop failure and damaging infrastructure.61 Canada is the world's 10th largest emitter of greenhouse gases accounting for 1.5% of global GHG emissions.
Not only would the world need to transition to zero emissions well before 2050, but an active drawdown of existing atmospheric greenhouse gases would be necessary to keep warming below the 1.5-degree threshold. reneweconomy
Direct air capture could be a multi-gigaton per year industry by the 2040s, potentially playing a very significant role in the stabilisation of climate change. Future Timeline
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The EU is to pay €387bn (£330bn) in farm subsidies from 2021 to 2027, but last Thursday green MEPs in Brussels said a planned overhaul failed to align agriculture with EU climate change targets. The Guardian
Climate change will drive 68 million to 132 million into poverty by 2030.
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The World Bank projects as many as 216 million people will be forced to move only within their country by climate change by 2050 across huge chunks of the world.
The world economy is set to lose up to 18% of gross domestic product from climate change by 2050 if no mitigating actions are taken. Actuarial Post
Climate change could force 216 million people across the world to migrate within their countries by 2050. Daily Post Nigeria
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
One of India's key international commitments in the global fight against climate change is the establishment of 450 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy (RE) by 2030. Mint
Climate change disasters could cut the world economy by $23 trillion by 2050. GoldSeek
To make climate change halfway controllable, global CO2 emissions must be reduced by 40 to 70% by 2050 at the latest. Apaton Finance GmbH
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
80% of major global companies will face moderate physical risk due to climate change by 2050.
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released last week - which warned that even under the best emissions reductions scenarios the world will likely warm by 1.5 degrees by 2040 - underscores the need for governments to take action. The Age
How can we help our children move forward with love, wonder, and resilience while knowing that climate change will likely impose tremendous difficulties in their future? Magination Press Family
What will a warming Australia mean for walking and how can we make sure we can keep stepping out in the future? Victoria Waks
How can we reconcile humanity's competing land demands with the need to combat climate change, protect biodiversity, and improve people's lives? Zoom Video Communications
How well can people adapt to climate change? The Economist
How do current global systems of producing and distributing food contribute to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions? Latest
How will food security be further endangered by climate change? Latest
Who is most affected by climate change? International Rescue Committee (IRC)
Who is vulnerable to climate change in the UK? Rethinking Poverty
Can people who do have access to food adapt their diets to alleviate and reduce the effects of climate change and improve food accessibility for others?
What pressure will be put on the countries contributing the most to climate change? BBC News
Both corporate and consumer-focused businesses have big decisions to make on what their role will be on climate change - what are the potential risks, and rewards, of leading on environmental action? Vuelio
What innovations could counteract the damage done by climate change? The Economist
Why is mobility so important when it comes to climate change? European Climate Pact
If we cannot solve the relatively straightforward problem of vaccine distribution when we have a surplus of supplies, how will we ever meet other complex challenges, such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, cybersecurity and tax havens, which also require a global response? The Economist
Is there a way forward for the U.S. and China when it comes to climate change? Defense One
Will climate change pressures bring about a 'Crunch Point' for hydrocarbon powered leisure? Royal Aeronautical Society
Will climate change cause the collapse of civilization?
Why will increased atmospheric warming impact food safety? 21st Century Tech Blog
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